The Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Boston Celtics 118-112 in a blockbuster matchup between two NBA Finals favorites.
Behind Chet Holmgren’s double-double (23 points, 15 points) and MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 34 points, the Western Conference-leading Thunder have now defeated Boston twice this season and improved their record against Eastern Conference teams to 22-1.
Boston’s Jayson Tatum had 33 points in the losing effort, but ultimately the Celtics faltered late in the game despite the team tying the NBA record for 3-point attempts in a non-overtime game (63). The Thunder used a 20-14 run to finish the game as the Celtics cooled off from beyond the arc, shooting 1-9 on 3-pointers in the final eight minutes.
Wednesday’s game at TD Garden showcased what makes both these teams elite: tough defense by the Thunder, a barrage of 3-point shooting by the Celtics and both teams’ stars making big plays all over the court. NBA insiders Tim Bontemps, Zach Kram and Brian Windhorst break down OKC’s win, what it means for both sides and what to expect from these two juggernauts during the playoffs and beyond.
Biggest takeaway from tonight’s game?
Tim Bontemps: That Oklahoma City should be viewed as the biggest threat to take down Boston and become NBA champions.
There’s been plenty of attempts from all corners of the league to try to pour cold water on the Thunder’s chances. But OKC has now swept the season series with the Celtics, pulling away in the second half of both games, despite Chet Holmgren missing the first meeting in Oklahoma City back in January and Jalen Williams sitting out Wednesday night’s win in Boston.
The Thunder are a deep, versatile bunch that can win in a variety of ways. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander showed why he is an MVP candidate with his performance from start to finish. Holmgren had 23 points and 15 rebounds, and his partnership with Isaiah Hartenstein paid dividends throughout Wednesday night’s game, specifically in the minutes when Gilgeous-Alexander sat out at the start of the second and fourth quarters – minutes the Thunder won in this game.
These are the two most versatile teams in the league. Both of the games between these two teams have been fabulously entertaining. But there’s no one else who has faced the Celtics this season and made them look more vulnerable than this Thunder team has.
Yes, this OKC squad under coach Mark Daigneault is the youngest team in the league. Yes, questions remain about how Williams, in particular, will handle a secondary creation role in the postseason, after struggling in that position last season.
But the idea anyone else should be favored to win the West is foolish. The Thunder showed that again Wednesday night.
Brian Windhorst: OK, so the Thunder can take away so many things from this game. Chet Holmgren’s ability to handle a big role under pressure. The success of both their small and big lineups. The might of their bench depth. Even racking up a ton of free throws, something they rarely do as they are 27th in the league in attempts.
Having said that, the Celtics were 5-of-27 on 3-pointers in the second half. This is not to say it all comes down to 3-point shooting, but when the Celtics don’t make their 3s they become vulnerable. This Celtics team is fantastic and vulnerable. This season has taught us this and this game reinforced it.
Zach Kram: The Thunder aren’t afraid of the Celtics’ 3-point attack. Boston attempted a record-tying 63 3-pointers, making 20 of them; at the end of the first quarter, a whopping 22 of Boston’s 24 shot attempts had come from beyond the arc.
The Celtics started hot but cooled off with a 5-for-27 mark on 3s in the second half — reminiscent of their 9-for-46 showing in their loss in Oklahoma City in January. On most nights, the Celtics will make more of their jumpers. But despite Boston’s eagerness to shoot 3s, the Thunder didn’t compromise their defensive principles. They offered aggressive help on Boston’s drives, forced kickout passes to the perimeter and invited the Celtics to fire away from deep. That strategy worked in both meetings this season.
The Celtics might be equally happy to have taken so many 3s, given coach Joe Mazzulla’s offensive vision. But they were lacking a backup plan on Wednesday — which might be solved in a future matchup if Kristaps Porzingis is healthy and able to weaponize his potent post-up game.
Boston also missed Porzingis’s presence on defense. The Thunder attempted 22 shots at the rim in this game and produced points on 19 of them (14 made shots and five shooting fouls drawn). Al Horford is an ageless wonder who tallied 18 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and a steal in Wednesday’s bout, but he’s not an elite rim protector. Opponents have converted 65% of their attempts at the rim against Horford this season, versus just 52% against Porzingis.
What will determine the length of each team’s playoff run
Bontemps: For Boston, mostly health — and to a lesser extent focus. When Boston is fully healthy, it’s hard to see a team beating them four times out of seven. The Celtics are battle-tested, extraordinarily versatile and can dial it up on both offense and defense to a level that hardly any team can match.
We’ve seen Boston repeatedly open up massive leads over the past two weeks against elite teams during this seven-game homestand — even while missing at least one, and often multiple, key players.
But the Celtics have repeatedly let those leads slip away — a consistent problem of the past. Boston’s 3-point heavy offensive attack, in particular, is prone to variance both good and bad. But, if the Celtics are healthy, I won’t be picking against them in a seven-game series.
Windhorst: OKC is a defensive juggernaut with everything you need in the modern game: depth, length, height, wing stoppers, a switchable big, on-ball menaces and rim protectors. Offensively, they are not as complete. Gilgeous-Alexander carries a heavy load — he has more than 100 more isolation baskets than any other player in the league. That highlights the Thunder’s paradox: They have a top-five offense but a bottom-five assist rate. OKC also doesn’t have a rotation player who shoots over 40% on 3s. Their offensive resilience is their weakness, and if a team sells out on slowing SGA, there might be some pressure on the rest of that offense. How they cope with that is where the rubber meets the road.
Kram: Because the Eastern Conference is so top-heavy, the Celtics should coast to the conference finals. They’re guaranteed to face an overmatched opponent in the first round, as every Eas squad in a play-in spot has a losing record, and Boston has crushed the third-seeded New York Knicks in every meeting this season. But the Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the three best teams in the league, along with the Celtics and Thunder, which means Boston would have to overcome a high hurdle to reach the Finals.
Conversely, in a deeper Western Conference field, the Thunder might face three challenging opponents on their potential Finals path — though not any individual team as dangerous as Cleveland. According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), after the top trio of the Thunder, Cavaliers and Celtics, seven of the next eight best teams are in the West. And some of them have played Oklahoma City well this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets split four meetings apiece with the Thunder, and the Warriors beat them in two out of three tries even before they added Jimmy Butler III. A Los Angeles Lakers team with LeBron James and Luka Doncic wouldn’t be an easy out, either.
Which team has the better five-year outlook?
Bontemps: There is no team with a better five-year outlook in the NBA than Oklahoma City, between their collection of young players and draft picks. The much more interesting question is which team has the better two- or three-year outlook.
The most important thing for Boston is that Jayson Tatum is under contract throughout his prime, giving the Celtics one of the best players in the league at its most desired positional archetype — an elite two-way wing — to build around. But with a $500 million payroll and luxury tax bill looming next season, plus the team currently being up for sale, there are a lot of questions about where this franchise will go from here.
What level of winning would it take for the Celitcs to run it back? The expectation has been that becoming the first team to defend a title since the 2018 Golden State Warriors — and having a chance to become the first to go for three in a row since Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant’s Lakers of the early 2000s — will be too much of an opportunity to pass up. But all of that will be determined by the team’s new owners, who could be in place as soon as this spring. For the Thunder, no such questions will be stopping them anytime soon.
Windhorst: This week, Sportico published the Celtics financials as a round of bids came in for the sale of the franchise. Last season, including the massive influx their run to the title meant for their bottom line, the Celtics revenue was projected at less than $500 million. They are a very healthy and profitable team, but they can’t survive spending more money on payroll than they take in. This is a major reason why the team is for sale, regardless of what might be presented publicly. Is there a way to cut payroll and keep the team a championship contender? Absolutely, and the Celtics are probably working on a plan. But to say Boston has a better five-year outlook at this point would be disingenuous.
Kram: Over the next five years, I would take Oklahoma City ahead of every other team in the NBA. The Thunder already have the league’s best young core, and they can keep replenishing with talented youngsters due to their hoard of draft picks — or trade those picks for win-now upgrades. Barring injury, the only obstacle that might get in Oklahoma City’s way of repeated 60-win campaigns is if the team’s ownership group doesn’t want to pay to keep Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren together on large extensions.
But that financial complication is already affecting the Celtics, who are above the second apron this season and set to be well above that threshold next year. Once the Celtics’ sale is resolved, will the franchise’s new owners be comfortable paying hundreds of millions of dollars in luxury tax payments?
A Celtics-Thunder Finals matchup would be____?
Bontemps: A dream matchup for any basketball fan, and one we could potentially see over and over again in the years to come. We explained above how Oklahoma City is poised to be in the mix moving forward. And even with the financial unknowns hanging over the Celtics, they still have so much firepower for at least the next couple of seasons. Barring injury and as long as the core team remains intact, they’re going to be fighting for Eastern Conference supremacy.
But both teams are deep and have coaches in Mazzulla and Daigneault who are willing to experiment in different ways. All of that portends what would be a fascinating matchup that any fan should enjoy watching.
Windhorst: Big brother-little brother. The Celtics were a team of promise for years, their young core built through the draft and savvy trades opening a window they struggled to finally break through. It wouldn’t be accurate to say the Thunder were built in Boston’s image but their processes are related. The Celtics are a team of the moment, the Thunder are a team of the future. Boston wants that to remain the reality, OKC wants to progress. It’s a natural matchup.
Kram: A clash of unstoppable forces and immovable objects. On one end of the floor, the Celtics lead the league in made 3s, while the Thunder allow the lowest opponent 3-point percentage. On the other end, the Thunder are led by the NBA’s best scoring guard in Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Celtics have perhaps the best defensive guard tandem. Both teams rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive ratings.
Modern playoff basketball is all about matchup hunting, but neither the Celtics or Thunder have any weak links or matchups to hunt. The players in their rotations can all shoot, create and hold their own on defense.
We haven’t had an NBA Finals reach a Game 7 since 2016, when the Cavaliers completed their 3-1 comeback against the Warriors. But Celtics-Thunder would be so perfectly matched that it might be destined to go the distance.
