CHICAGO — For consecutive offseasons, the Chicago Cubs have given mixed signals to their fans and the rest of the baseball world.
Last winter, they sent shockwaves through the sport when they fired David Ross and lured Craig Counsell from Milwaukee by making him the highest paid manager ever. After the bold move to start the offseason, it looked like the Cubs could follow with a big spending spree.
Instead, what ensued was a “measured” offseason, according to one rival executive who went into that winter worried the Cubs might outspend the division. Chicago did make some deft moves — signing pitcher Shota Imanaga, acquiring first baseman Michael Busch from the Los Angeles Dodgers and waiting out the market to bring back Cody Bellinger — but the splashy roster addition many expected never occurred.
Their 2024 results resembled their conservative offseason approach. After winning 83 games under Ross in 2023, the Cubs posted another 83-win season under their new $40 million manager.
Fast-forward to this winter and the team once again started boldly, this time with a blockbuster trade for Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker. But while Cubs fans were still celebrating the addition of a veteran star, Chicago turned around and traded away another when it shipped Bellinger — and most of his $52.5 million contract — to the New York Yankees. Tucker will make around $16 million to $18 million in 2025 through the arbitration system, compared to Bellinger’s $27.5 million salary for next season.
“I guess this is the Cubs’ version of going all-in,” one agent said sarcastically.
All of this is happening against the backdrop of not making the playoffs in a full season since 2018 while exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the 2024 season — and with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer entering the final year of his contract.
Here’s how the franchise has become stuck in the middle.
RECENTLY, HOYER WAS asked about the concept of being all-in.
“I always think that all-in is sort of a narrative,” he said. “You’re always doing moves for now and the future and trying to balance those.”
When Chicago traded for Tucker, it signaled an urgency to win in 2025 and a shift in that balance. The Cubs sent three years of team control for third baseman Isaac Paredes, five years for pitcher Hayden Wesneski and six years for prospect Cam Smith to the Astros. All for just one guaranteed season of Tucker, since he can become a free agent after the season.
It was a move outside their comfort zone, one Hoyer said he would not have made back in 2021 or 2022 when the team was at the beginning of a rebuild.
“To acquire a player like that, it comes at a real price,” he said. “But it’s a price we’re willing to pay given the fact that’s something we felt all summer we lacked and wanted to bring to this team.”
The move gave the Cubs a deep lineup featuring left-handed power throughout the order including Tucker, Happ, Bellinger, Busch and Pete Crow-Armstong — until Bellinger was quickly flipped to New York.
While the moves might have confused fans, the front office has been transparent about what is driving its offseason decisions.
“Marginal value of a win,” general manager Carter Hawkins said. “If you’re going from 85 to 87 wins, [it’s] really important. That might be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. Going from 75 to 77, not that important. You’re unlikely to make the playoffs.”
After Counsell’s first season at the helm failed to produce a playoff berth, the Cubs have replaced a good player in Bellinger with a better one in Tucker, while adding Matthew Boyd to the rotation to replace Kyle Hendricks, and are hoping these incremental upgrades will get them back to October.
MUCH OF THE reason the Cubs are spending their offseason focused on creating value in trades comes from a reluctance to play in the deepest end of free agency, including choosing not to make a run at top free agent Juan Soto.
“I think we organizationally decided not to pursue that one,” Hoyer said earlier this month at the winter meetings. “That doesn’t mean in the future we won’t. But that was one we didn’t.”
You can also cross off ace Corbin Burnes. And Max Fried, who signed with the Yankees. And anyone else in line for a huge payday.
Though the Cubs’ front office has the ability to be fluid with its budget, according to sources familiar with the situation, it’s become obvious the team isn’t going to increase its payroll by any significant margin. They are likely to reallocate the savings from the Bellinger-Tucker swap to other areas of the team, according to sources. The Cubs might even reduce their payroll in 2025, but ownership has always been open to what the front office presents them, whether that comes in the winter or during the summer trading period. The team believes it spends enough to win, but also understands that the payroll isn’t enough to guarantee 90-win seasons.
“We have to beat projections,” Hoyer famously said at the beginning of the offseason. “We have to have players outperform … that’s how you have the season that we want to have.”
Chicago was one of three teams that missed the playoffs despite being over the luxury tax threshold last season. Over the last half-decade, however, Chicago hasn’t spent on its payroll to keep up with other big-market teams that routinely exceed the luxury tax number and it remains to be seen if ownership will allow the front office to do so again in 2025, with stiffer penalties for a second consecutive offense.
The addition of a new television network in 2020 hasn’t been the cash cow the team thought it would be, according to sources familiar with the situation. Meanwhile, private equity investment has ownership answering to more than just a handful of local minority investors like it did previously. The bottom line is more of a concern than ever, with some industry observers believing the Cubs won’t sign a megadeal for a player before the next labor agreement is negotiated with the players after the 2026 season.
That means Tucker could be one-and-done at Wrigley Field. After Soto helped set the market when he signed for $765 million, the soon-to-be free agent has likely already priced himself out of Chicago. Signing an extension before he hits free agency seems unlikely and some industry observers already believe the odds are low that he will re-sign with Chicago next winter.
“There is no point in speculating on that today as we sit here in December,” Hoyer said.
Tucker had a similar noncommittal response at his introductory news conference: “I’m always open to talks and see where it leads. You never know what the future is going to hold. We’ll see how things progress.”
Perhaps just making the playoffs in 2025 would be enough to quiet the noise if Tucker leaves, but it could also help the Cubs keep the 27-year-old, three-time All-Star on the off chance he’d take a discount to stay.
Whether the Cubs are playing in October could also serve as a litmus test for Hoyer. Ownership has always held a positive view of Hoyer, but the franchise has yet to win a postseason game since he moved into his current role in November 2020. While ownership isn’t necessarily looking to make a change, there’s belief around the organization that Hoyer’s performance will be more scrutinized in 2025 than at any time during his tenure with the Cubs.
“My own situation is not a concern,” Hoyer said. “I don’t look at it that way. I’ve been in the game for a long time. I’m confident in my abilities and my résumé. My job always is to be the best steward of the organization.
“I try to make good decisions for the Ricketts family. Try to make sure I’m setting us up for a good future but I’m also setting us up for an exciting present.”
