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Projecting the 2025 NFL draft order: Favorites for the No. 1 overall pick, plus who cracks the top 10?


There are seven weeks until NFL training camp, more than three months until the 2024 regular season and nearly a year until the 2025 NFL draft. We know what you’re thinking: Is it too early to think about the 2025 draft? The answer is no.

Let’s take a first look at the projected first-round draft order for 32 teams with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI projects the draft order by simulating the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team’s average draft position in the simulations.

After you check out the the full 1-32 projection for the 2025 NFL draft below, take a glance at more FPI takeaways for the upcoming season.

ne

Average draft position: 5.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 21.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 66.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 87.4%


car

Average draft position: 5.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 84.7%


den

Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 50.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77.1%


ten

Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 36.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 65.1%


wsh

Average draft position: 9.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.8%


nyg

Average draft position: 9.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.9%


min

Average draft position: 10.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 54.8%


lv

Average draft position: 11.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.56%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.1%


ari

Average draft position: 11.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 50.5%


no

Average draft position: 13.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 43.6%


sea

Average draft position: 14.1
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 13.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.1%


tb

Average draft position: 14.4
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 14%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6%


pit

Average draft position: 14.9
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 11.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.9%


ind

Average draft position: 15.0
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 13.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 33.2%


Average draft position: 15.8
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 11%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.5%


cle

Average draft position: 15.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26%


chi

Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.4%


lac

Average draft position: 16.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 24.9%


lar

Average draft position: 17.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.2%


nyj

Average draft position: 18.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6%


mia

Average draft position: 20.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.2%


atl

Average draft position: 20.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.8%


hou

Average draft position: 21.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10%


gb

Average draft position: 21.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.6%


cin

Average draft position: 22.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.6%


buf

Average draft position: 22.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.9%


dal

Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.9%


phi

Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.9%


bal

Average draft position: 24.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.1%


det

Average draft position: 24.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.5%


kc

Average draft position: 25.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.3%


sf

Average draft position: 25.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.1%



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