NEWCASTLE, England — Chelsea have two games to make their £1 billion transfer gamble pay off, and they will have to do it without a striker.
Whether the club’s scattergun recruitment or Nicolas Jackson’s red card for serious foul play in the 2-0 defeat at Newcastle are most to blame for their predicament is debatable but, either way, Chelsea’s hopes of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League are on a knife-edge because they won’t have a striker in their two most crucial games of the season.
A recent Premier League revival that saw Enzo Maresca’s team win three successive league games had seen Chelsea climb back into the top five ahead of Sunday’s clash with Newcastle at St James’ Park. But the margin for error for the six teams — Newcastle, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and also second-place Arsenal — aiming to secure the four remaining Champions League spots behind champions Liverpool is so thin for each team that any slip at this stage of run-in could wreck their hopes.
Jackson’s moment of recklessness in the first half, when he struck Newcastle defender Sven Botman in the face with his right elbow, led to the 23-year-old being shown a red card by referee John Brooks after VAR official Darren England called for a review after the initial award of a yellow card.
By that stage, Chelsea were already 1-0 down after Sandro Tonali’s second-minute opener for Newcastle, who matched Brentford’s record of four goals inside the opening two minutes of this season. But, with 35 minutes on the clock and Jackson walking down the tunnel, their chances of claiming at least a point were hugely compromised without their only fit and available striker.
“I haven’t spoken to Nico, it’s not the time,” coach Enzo Maresca told reporters afterwards. “But I will speak to him in the next days. His season for us is finished. He is our No. 9, our striker, so we have to find a solution for the next games. What you have to avoid is these kind of things, but it happened. Nico is now out for the season and hopefully he can learn for the future.”
Had Jackson been on the pitch in the second half, when Chelsea enjoyed lengthy spells of possession, he may have been able to help the team score an equalizer that would have earned a potentially crucial point. But Chelsea were toothless and that is the problem they must overcome in their final two games, at home to Manchester United on Friday and away to Nottingham Forest in a potentially winner-takes-all Champions League decider on the final day.
Jackson’s red card has hurt his team at a decisive stage of the season, but the deeper issue is the club’s lavish spending spree, in excess of £1bn, that has left them without a solution in the form of an out-and-out center-forward.
When Maresca selects his team to face United at Stamford Bridge later this week, he will have to do so without Jackson — who will start a three-match suspension for his red card — Christopher Nkunku (injured), Jadon Sancho (ineligible to face his parent club), Marc Guiu (injured) and Mykhailo Mudryk, who is still provisionally suspended for alleged doping.
Of that group, only Jackson could be classed as a striker. The rest are part of Chelsea’s assortment of wingers and forwards who have been signed ahead of, yes, you guessed it, a center-forward.
Jackson, a £32 million signing from Villarreal in June 2023, is a striker but not a particularly prolific one. His goal in the 1-0 win against Everton last month was his 10th in the Premier League this season, but his first since mid-December. Chelsea will not miss his goals in the final two games, but they will miss his presence as the focal point of their team.
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The goal-scoring burden will likely fall on the shoulders of forward Cole Palmer, who has netted 15 goals in 35 Premier League appearances this season, but while the 23-year-old is supremely talented, it is now 20 games since he last scored from open play in all competitions. His penalty against Liverpool last week was his first goal of any kind since the 2-2 draw against Bournemouth on Jan. 14.
Palmer may yet turn out to be Chelsea’s hero, but they are now walking a tightrope in their next two games. It seems like Maresca’s side will need at least four points, and maybe even all six, from their final two games to clinch a top-five finish. Without a striker, that will be a tough challenge. But as Manchester City’s surprise 0-0 draw away to bottom club Southampton showed on Saturday, no result can be taken for granted at this stage of the season.
Even Newcastle, who moved into third on 66 points with the win against Chelsea, are still anxiously looking over their shoulders in the race for Champions League qualification. They travel to Arsenal next Sunday knowing that both Chelsea and Aston Villa could match their points tally by beating United and Tottenham respectively on Friday. But Newcastle now have the advantage because they did what they had to do against Chelsea.
It’s a different scenario for Maresca’s team, but if they fail to win at least one of their remaining games, they are highly unlikely to finish in the top five. If that happens, their £1bn spending spree will be as hard to fathom as Jackson’s decision-making when he challenged Botman.